Evaluation of the Impact of The “Double Reduction” Policy on Off-campus Training Behavior and Education Expenditure of Different Families: Difference-in-Differences Analysis Based on CFPS Data

Abstract

As a key education reform in China, the “double reduction” policy aims to ease students’ academic burden and family education expenditure, and promote educational equity. Evaluating its actual effect is crucial for optimizing education governance and improving policy implementation. This work, using 2018 (pre-policy) and 2022 (post-policy) panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), applies the difference-in-differences model to assess the policy's impact on families’ off-campus training participation and education expenditure, with heterogeneity analysis and robustness tests enhancing conclusion reliability. Empirical results show contrary-to-expectation findings: off-campus training participation rate rose abnormally, from 3.0% in 2018 to 30.2% in 2022 (subject training: 2.6% to 22.6%; non-subject training: 1.6% to 20.3%). Family off-campus training expenditure dropped significantly by 94.2% (logarithmic result), but its share in total family education expenditure remained stable. Heterogeneity analysis reveals low-income households saw the largest expenditure decrease (≈99.8%), while middle-and high-income households had more significant increases in training participation (44.22%-43.33%); urban-rural gaps persist, with urban families showing higher participation and expenditure. This study highlights the need to strengthen policy implementation consistency, standardize off-campus training supervision, address potential educational inequality from increased participation among middle-and high-income families, and alleviate family anxiety by expanding high-quality public education resources.