Where Did the Children go: The Configurational Effects of Changes in the Proportion of Urban Children in China

Sijun Wang; Xueyi Wang; Cheng Qin

doi:10.6918/IJOSSER.202602_9(2).0020

Authors

Sijun Wang
Xueyi Wang
Cheng Qin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.6918/IJOSSER.202602_9(2).0020

Keywords:

Multi-factor, Children, Population Proportion, Interaction Effect, fsQCA

Abstract

The gradual decline in the proportion of children represents an urgent scientific issue that demands effective solutions. Grounded in the "economy-population-environment" configurational framework, this study examines China's prefecture-level cities to investigate the drivers of this demographic shift. Employing a temporal multi-stage configurational approach at ten-year intervals, we analyze how economic, demographic, and environmental factors have influenced the child population share from 2000 to 2020. Using the child proportion as the outcome variable and selecting conditional variables across economic development, educational resources, infrastructure, fertility potential, social interaction, and air pollution, this research identifies six distinct configurational paths. The findings are threefold: First, in the economic dimension, persistently lagging economic development and a shortage of educational resources were consistently associated with a high proportion of children. Conversely, the role of infrastructure shifted from a deficiency to a key driving factor by 2020. Second, in the population dimension, social interaction consistently served as a promoting factor, while the influence of the proportion of women of childbearing age transitioned from low to high, indicating the gradual manifestation of fertility policies and enhanced social support. Third, in the environmental dimension, the impact of air pollution evolved from a marginal effect in the early stages to a significant inhibitory factor after 2010. This paper reveals the complex multi-factor interaction mechanisms and path-dependent characteristics underlying the proportion of children, thereby providing theoretical and empirical support for formulating differentiated and systematic population policies.

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